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Hillary Heads to Texas, On Firmer Ground

Hillary Clinton flew from Nevada to Texas late yesterday and gave a speech at Texas Southern University. (She had a coughing fit, and for about a minute, her voice was a whisper. Did no one have a bottle of water to give her? )

Lines were long and people were enthusiastic to see and hear from the presidential candidate in person.

She hit every topic a few times, from discrimination against the LGBT community, to racism, the criminal justice system, income inequality, immigration, education, etc. She hit Bernie Sanders hard, saying he shouldn't be making promises he can't keep -- like his promises of free tuition for all. (He can't make it happen with the current Republican Governor of Texas.) She said we shouldn't be raising taxes of the middle class. [More...]

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Jeb Bush Drops Out

Jeb Bush suspended his campaign tonight following his dismal performance in South Carolina.

Jeb blew through $150 million. He had the largest war chest of any Republican. His campaign was an epic fail. Whose fault is it? Those who encouraged him to run, those who ran his campaign, or the boring Jeb himself?

The TV coverage tonight is all about South Carolina, there's very little about Nevada.

I could only stand to watch under a minute each of Rubio and Cruz' speeches. I think they will be irrelevant after the southern states are done. Republicans in the big states like New York and California will figure out that Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio or any evangelical is unelectable in November against any Democrat. This country is just not going to elect a radical right extremist as President. [More...]

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Hillary Wins Nevada Caucuses

Hillary Clinton bested Bernie Sanders today in the Nevada Democratic caucuses. As of now,
Hillary has 52.5% to Bernies 47.4% with 86% of the vote in. The LA Times reports Bernie won the northern Nevada counties that Obama took in 2008, while the Washington Post says her support among African-Americans was very strong, and Bernie did pretty well among Latinos.

But according to preliminary entrance polls reported by CNN, she won among black Democrats by a whopping 76 percent to 22 percent. African Americans made up 13 percent of the electorate, according to the entrance poll, while 19 percent were Hispanic and 59 percent were white. Sanders held an eight-point edge among Hispanic voters, who accounted for roughly 1 in 5 caucus-goers, and the two candidates split white voters about evenly.

The LA Times also says Hillary won the casino vote. The Caesar's precinct chair says the vote was 190 for Hillary and 81 for Sanders. More on this from the Wall St. Journal. Here's a photo of Bill in the Caesar's ballroom at caucus time: [More...]

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Trump Takes South Carolina

Donald Trump wins the South Carolina primary. Cruz and Rubio battle for second.

Trump's victory was sweeping. He won among veterans and non-veterans, moderates and conservatives, evangelicals and non-evangelicals, women and men, according to the results of the exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the Associated Press and the major television networks.

As he has throughout the campaign, Trump dominated the vote of Republicans without a college education and those with incomes below $100,000. College graduates were closely divided among backers of Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Those with incomes above $100,000 split their vote between Trump and Rubio, the exit poll indicated.

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Nevada Caucus Day: Immigration Matters

Today is caucus day for Nevada Democrats. Will Nevada Latinos buy into Bernie Sanders? Or will they take a pass? Nevada civil rights activist Dolores Huerta is pushing hard for Hillary. She says Bernie Sanders is a spoiler on immigration.

©ivil right activist Dolores Huerta intercepted potential voters as they lined up to make their lunch orders [at Tacos El Gordo restaurant] and urged them to caucus for Hillary Clinton.

"I was reminding them -- these are young Latinos, children of immigrants -- that way back in 2007, we had a great opportunity to pass immigration reform," Huerta said. "And Hillary Clinton also co-authored that bill with Senator [Ted] Kennedy. But Bernie Sanders came out against the vote."

"He was a spoiler on the immigration bill and he’s a spoiler in this campaign."

Her online editorial recounts Bernie's immigration vote as an Independent in the Senate and calls him a "Johnny Come Lately" on immigration reform: [More...]

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South Carolina: Time for Republicans to Vote

It's finally time for Republicans to vote in South Carolina. Last minute predictions?

Time Magazine reports:

For Republicans, South Carolina offers 50 pledged delegates, about 2% of the convention total, of which 29 will will be awarded to the highest statewide vote getter, and three will be awarded to the higher vote getter in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The hybrid system may allow multiple candidates to find a reason to claim success.

Ted Cruz is fighting Trump and Rubio for the evangelical vote. [More...]

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The Path to the Democratic Nomination (2008 Edition)

I just came across a post I wrote in 2008 quoting a Hillary Clinton campaign press release on Feb. 13, 2008 titled "The Path to the Nomination." It included the following:

After Iowa, every poll gave Barack Obama a strong lead in New Hampshire, but he ended up losing the state. And after a defeat in South Carolina, Hillary Clinton went on to win by large margins in California, New York, Florida, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates – not the candidate who wins the most states. In 1992, Bill Clinton lost a string of primaries before clinching the nomination. He ceded Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland, Arizona, Washington, Utah, Colorado, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, Vermont and South Dakota.
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Republican Town Hall in South Carolina

CNN is airing a Republican presidential town hall in South Carolina.

John Kasich is on now. I think he's the only non-crazed Republican in the race. But I happened to see him last night on Stephen Colbert's show and he seemed really off. Tonight he seems really tired.

He also said last night that the debates are worthless -- nothing more than sound bites. He said the town halls are the only worthwhile events.

He's got Martin O'Malley syndrome -- mentioning his experience as a state governor way too often.

Update: Did Jeb Bush have laser surgery or get contact lenses? He looked better with glasses.[More...]

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The Pope and Donald

Maybe it was a slow news day, but CNN really seemed to want to crank up this story about the Pope's criticism of Donald Trump on immigration and make it have legs:

Asked if American Catholics should vote for someone with Trump's views, Francis said, "I am not going to get involved in that. I say only that this man is not Christian if he has said things like that. We must see if he said things in that way and in this I give the benefit of the doubt."

Much ado about nothing. Slightly more entertaining was Trumps' statement that the Vatican is in ISIS' cross-hairs and ripe for an attack, and that after it gets attacked, it will realize that had Trump been President, the attack would never have happened because ISIS would have been taken out. [More....]

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Milwaukee Debate Thread

Sorry everyone, I just found out there's a Democratic debate tonight. Here's a thread to discuss it.

Update: I watched almost all of it. Here's the transcript. My view: Oddest Bernie Sanders comments: Dragging out Henry Kissinger for criticism over Kissinger's actions during Vietnam and Cambodia. He said Hillary mentioned Kissinger in a book she wrote. Who cares about Henry Kissinger today? Was he just reminding us someone is older than him?

Bernie thinks the campaign is about more than electing a president. He thinks it's about a political revolution. He's wrong. It's about who is going to be President. That's it. Bernie Sanders is not a movement. He's an established politician running for office. That's all there is, folks. [More...]

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NH Primary Thread

I'm buried with work and really have no clue what's going on today anyway.

Talk NH here.

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Bernie and a Political Revolution

From Woodstock in 1969 to New Hampshire today... calls for revolution are always popular with the young. But as those of us who are no longer young can attest, we are still waiting for that revolution. And we'll still be waiting in 2020.

I'd rather elect someone who can get things done than someone who promises yet another pie in the sky. I'm way too jaded to believe in Lucy in the Sky With Diamonds. Especially when Lucy is 75 years old and has far fewer political accomplishments than his opponent. A stalled Congress is just not my idea of how to kick off a revolution. (If elected, Sanders will be 76 when he takes office. If you're 50 or younger, you might not see the difference between 68 and 75. But I suspect anyone who has observed their parents' failing health or mental decline at age 75, or who is that age, will say differently. I wish it were different, but 75 is just not the new 55.)

It will surprise no one if New Hampshire goes for Bernie Sanders, given its proximity to Vermont and the large number of independent voters who are allowed to vote in either primary. But far more important will be Super Tuesday in early March and the large states, particularly those with a lot of minority voters. [More...]

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