Tag: 2008 (page 18)

Bringiton at Corrente does the heavy lifting. An overview of the Democratic nominating process is here.

My view of the math is found at The Electoral Map and the Battleground States. It's based on William Arnone's analysis here.

The three of us concur: Hillary has a better chance of accumulating the electoral votes necessary to beat John McCain. It doesn't mean we think Obama can't do it. It means we think Hillary is a surer bet.

All comments related to the electoral math vote count are welcome. As Bringiton says, "please do not clutter up the discussion thread with meaningless repetition of [Obama] talking points; if you have nothing new to offer, kindly hold your peace.]

The New York Times (tomorrow's paper, available now) has a 7 page profile on how Barack Obama forged coalitions in Illinois:

The secret of his transformation — which has brought him to the brink of claiming the Democratic presidential nomination — can be described as the politics of maximum unity: He moved from his leftist Hyde Park base to more centrist circles; he forged early alliances with the good-government reform crowd only to be later embraced by the city’s all-powerful Democratic bosses; he railed against pork-barrel politics but engaged in it when needed; and he empathized with the views of his Palestinian friends before adroitly courting the city’s politically potent Jewish community.

To broaden his appeal to African-Americans, Mr. Obama had to assiduously court older black leaders entrenched in Chicago’s ward politics before selling himself as a young, multicultural bridge to the wider political world.

I have no use for the kind of unity that trumps taking a position on issues based on one's beliefs in favor of a taking a position based on who it will appeal to and then not sticking to it.

This is why it's so hard to figure out where Obama really stands on issues, from crime issues (here and here) to gun rights. He changes, depending on his audience and which voters he needs to appease or win over at the time. As I often write, where's Obama? Here, there and everywhere.

More from the Times:

An informal Middle East advsior to Barack Obama quit the campaign yesterday as the advisor's ties to Hamas were about to become more publicized.

Rob Malley said he wanted to stop being a distraction for the campaign after facing attacks from the blogosphere for months for allegedly being anti-Israel, a charge he denies.

...Malley's departure comes at a sensitive time for Obama, who appears to be nearing the Democratic nomination but has struggled to win the support of Jewish and pro-Israel voters. Hamas, which won Palestinian legislative elections in 2006, refuses to recognize Israel and is dedicated to its destruction.

Malley interviewed Hamas, Palestinian and Israeli officials as part of his job...."To do my job, I have to meet with savory and unsavory people," he said. But Malley said that after he fielded a call this morning from the Times of London, which asked about the Hamas meetings, he decided he had had enough. "

The Obama campaign responded:

"Mr. Malley has, like hundreds of other experts, provided informal advice to the campaign," said Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor. "He has no formal role in the campaign and he will not play any role in the future."

More from the U.K. Times here.

From tomorrow's Christian Science Monitor: Hillary Campaign Advisors Wolfson and Garin say it's not that Obama can't win in November, it's that the data shows Hillary has a better chance:

At the top of the ballot, current state polling data show that Clinton would defeat Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, by 42 electoral votes, while the same polls show Obama losing to Senator McCain by 8 electoral votes, they said.

The Clinton strategists also came armed with charts looking at 20 House districts where freshmen Democrats won but which also voted for George Bush in 2004. Clinton defeated Obama in 16 of those 20 districts. Their argument: Clinton would help vulnerable House members more than Obama. Asked about the breakdown of endorsements from those 16 freshmen, Wolfson said that five had so far backed her and four, Obama.

As for how long she's staying in :[More]

Rasmussen polling says Hillary can't win, they are going to stop polling her and poll only Obama and McCain.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November. While we have not firmly decided upon a final day for tracking the Democratic race, it is coming soon.

Today's Numbers: Hillary 48% to McCain 43%. Obama 47% to McCain 44%.

West VA: Hillary 56, Obama 27.

Gallup Daily: "Obama not pulling away yet". Dates polled, May 6 to May 8, 2/3 of whom were polled after Tuesday's election results were known. Obama 48, Hillary 46.

Gallup says "Obama remains in a statistical dead heat with Clinton for the 16th consecutive day."

Whoops, Obama in Oregon today:

It is wonderful to be back in Oregon," Obama said. "Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go. Alaska and Hawaii, I was not allowed to go to even though I really wanted to visit, but my staff would not justify it."

The Times' conscientious Robin Abcarian thought she heard something different there. She checked her tape recorder. It had captured what he had actually said -- 57 states now.

He even paused before he said "57" as if he was thinking about the number. Obama explained afterwards:[More...]

Big Tent Democrat wrote about this earlier, but I want to add my thoughts. Paul Krugman's column today, Thinking About November, is excellent. If Obama is the nominee, he says there are a lot of reasons Democrats should sail to an presidential win November. Then he says there is one stumbling block and opines it's a big one:

the fight for the nomination has divided the party along class and race lines in a way that I believe is unprecedented, at least in modern times. Ironically, much of Mr. Obama’s initial appeal was the hope that he could transcend these divisions. At first, voting patterns seemed consistent with this hope. In February, for example, he received the support of half of Virginia’s white voters as well as that of a huge majority of African-Americans.

But this week, Mr. Obama, while continuing to win huge African-American majorities, lost North Carolina whites by 23 points, Indiana whites by 22 points. Mr. Obama’s white support continues to be concentrated among the highly educated; there was little in Tuesday’s results to suggest that his problems with working-class whites have significantly diminished.

In other words, [More...]

Thomas Edsall at Huffpo writes that the Obama campaign may agree to pay off Hillary Clinton's campaign debt of $10 plus million, plus her campaign expenses of $10 plus million, if she bows out gracefully now.

George Stephanapoulous says:

We know that Senator Clinton loaned herself a little more than $11 million. Going into April, the campaign finance reports show the campaign was carrying a debt of $10 million to $15 million. My sources are now telling that that number is far higher. The campaign debt is far higher than ten million dollars. It could be double that, maybe even more. And the lack of money and load of that debt could be driving the decisions inside the Clinton camp in coming days.

What do you think? Will there be an offer of debt repayment and if so, is Hillary likely to take it?

The Obama camp wants you to believe this election boils down to pledged delegates. It does not. It comes down to the superdelegates.

Here's my view: If by June 3, Hillary can come within 100 pledged delegates of Obama, including those she won in Florida (leaving Michigan aside for the minute) and her popular vote total is close to or exceeds Obama's (including Florida and Michigan), the superdelegates can decide based on who they think is more electable against John McCain in November without fearing they are overturning the will of the people.

It's the superdelegates' duty, not just their perogative, to consider a variety of factors, only one of which is the pledged delegate total.

So don't get sidetracked by the pledged delegate discussion. It won't even be a deciding factor if on June 3, after the last state has voted, Hillary has less, but not a lot less of pledged delegates. It won't matter if her popular vote total, including the 2.3 million who voted in Florida and Michigan, approximates, equals or exceeds Obama's.

If Hillary wins Indiana tonight, she'll continue. And the superdelegates will decide the nomination, based on their consciences and their prioritizing of the various factors, of which pledged delegates is one, popular vote is another and electability in November is a third.

Update: Here's the ad.

Ouch.

Paul Krugman says an Obama ad attacking Hillary on gas tax relief misrepresents what he said.

I did not say that the Clinton proposal would increase oil industry profits. If the ad implies that I did, it should be retracted.

....I was very clear when I wrote about the Clinton proposal that while I didn’t think it was good policy, it was not the same as McCain’s, and relatively harmless. If the Obama people are suggesting otherwise, they’re being deliberately dishonest.

Krugman's original column is here. It attacks only McCain's plan which is not the same as Hillary's.

More...

A new AP-Ipsos national poll has just been released. Hillary has some serious momentum happening.

Clinton (47%) Overtakes Obama (40%) Nationally On Eve of Indiana And North Carolina Primaries ; Poll Shows Clinton Campaign Picking Up Steam With Democrats Nationally

47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question.

Hillary's greatest support is coming from women with high school education or less and low income voters. The margin of error is 3.1%.

Hillary:

• 2:30 p.m., Appearance in Merrillville, IN.
• 7:30 p.m., Rally in New Albany, IN.
• 9:45 p.m., Rally in Evansville, IN.

Here's Obama

• 7:30 p.m., Rally in Indianapolis, IN.
• 9:15 p.m., Appearance in Gary, IN. (Spouse)
• Time N/A, Appearance in Evansville, IN.

More...