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Pre-Debate Thread: What Will McCain Try Now?

The final debate between Sen. Barack Obama and John McCain begins in less than two hours.

What will McCain do? Will he stay on issues or make a last minute sleaze attack on Obama?

How will Obama respond? How should he respond?

We'll all be here to live-blog the debate -- Big Tent Democrat, TChris, the TL Kid and me -- hope you will join us.

In the meantime, here's a place for your last minute debate thoughts.

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RNC Stops Spending in WI

The McCain campaign hasn't given up on Wisconsin, but the Republican National Committee can read the poll numbers and believes its resources can best be spent elsewhere. The RNC is dropping its Wisconsin advertising to focus on holding onto states that voted for Bush four years ago.

Fortunately, with the use of answering machines and caller ID, it's possible for Wisconsinites to avoid the McCain campaign's obnoxious robocalls. I listened to about 5 seconds of a robotic attack upon Barack Obama's "Hollywood values" yesterday before pressing the delete button. If McCain's plan is to annoy voters into supporting him, it isn't working.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold called on McCain to work harder to stop the decline of his campaign into "something hateful and dangerous."

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The Obama Chronicles: Coming To A Right Wing Blog Near You

The problem the Right Wing is having with Barack Obama is that he has lived in too many different places. With Bill Clinton it was easy - "The Arkansas Project" was just waiting to happen. But putting together The Obama Chronicles (see The Clinton Chronicles) is not so easy. (To be fair, we have certainly seen a version of the "Sarah Palin Chronicles" (not to be confused with the Sarah Connor Chronicles) from the Left blogs). Notwithstanding, as Kevin Drum gathers for us, the beginnings of the makings of "The Barack Obama Chronicles" is in the works:

One: Bill Ayers really wrote Obama's book, Dreams From My Father. Two: Obama had an underage, gay affair with a pedophile. Three: It's entirely possible that Obama was involved with bombing the South African rugby team while he was at Columbia in the 80s. Four: Obama, Bill Ayers, and Jeremiah Wright (via a chain of associations too Rube Goldbergesque to summarize) were engaged in a conspiracy to teach Pan-African "cultural nationalism" to Chicago schoolkids during the 90s. Five: Obama was having an affair with one of his fundraiser babes in 2004 until Michelle found out and banished the woman to a "little Caribbean island."

They're coming . . .

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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The Polls - 10/15

Yesterday, Sarah Palin said:

Our opponents spend so much time pretending they are running against the current president. I think it's wearing pretty thin . . . The American people are really waking up and saying no, the status quo is not one of the boxes to check.

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, today's look at the polls. DKos/R2000 has Obama up 11, 52-41. NYT/CBS has Obama up 14, 53-39. Battleground has Obama up 13, 53-40. The LATimes has Obama up 9, 50-41. Gallup (NVModel) has Obama up 10, 53-43. Ipsos/McClatchey has it 51-42 Obama. McCain's "good news" comes from Zogby, which has McCain down 4 and IBD/TIPP, which has McCain down 3. There are some polls that have Obama's lead in the 5-7 point range. There is no good news at all for McCain in the state polling where he basically trails every where remotely competitive and is in tossup races now in West Virginia, Indiana and Arkansas.

The Presidential race is over and after tonight's debate - the focus should shift to the Congressional races and what a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President need to do to get the country moving in the right direction. The correct answer is we need a new New Deal.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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McCain's Last Stand

Remember when the McCain campaign told us that the candidate didn't speak for the campaign? Does he ever?

The campaign zigs, McCain zags. The campaign initiates a full throttle attack on Obama's association with Bill Ayers, and McCain ignores Ayers in two dull debates. Then, taking note of polls showing that the negative campaigning has backfired, the campaign gropes for a change of strategy by trying to find a way to make McCain look credible on the economy. And so McCain decides that the last debate is the perfect time to talk about Ayers.

Why would McCain attack Obama in front of a national audience when he knows it will drive away voters? [more ...]

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NYTimes/CBS Poll: Obama Up by 14 points

The CBS/New York Times poll released this afternoon has Sen. Barack Obama leading John McCain by a whopping 14 points.

Obama has increased his lead even more among independents.

The top two reasons: McCain's negative attacks on Obama and --you guessed it -- Sarah Palin.

The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.

Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week.

Full poll results are here (pdf.)

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McCain Offers Economic Plan: More Tax Cuts

Sen. John McCain unveiled his new economic plan today. The chief points:

  • A proposal to lower the tax rate on seniors who tap their IRAs and 401(k)'s after reaching 59-and-a-half years old. Under his proposal, which he estimated would cost the government about $36 billion, the first $50,000 of withdrawals would only be taxed at the 10 percent rate, his aides said.
  • For those who sell stocks at a loss, McCain would increase the amount they can deduct from $3,000 to $15,000, making it less of a burden for those who need immediate cash to survive the economic downturn, his advisers said.
  • Capital gains taxes would be cut in half, McCain said, for two years, from 15 percent to 7.5 percent. His aides said that would cost the federal government about $10 billion, but would provide an incentive to save and invest.

More below, including the Obama camp's response:

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Voter Suppression and Disenfranchisement, Not Fraud, Are the Real Issues

Two great resources for voter suppression and disenfranchisement information are the Brennan Center for Justice and Election Protection.

Their experts say the real issue is not fraud, but voter suppression and disenfranchisement.

Actual cases of voter fraud are minimal to non-existent. Here's a 2007 Demos report (pdf). [More...]

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Report: Alaska National Guard Mismanaged Under Palin

Remember when John McCain and Sarah Palin touted her supervisory role over the Alaska National Guard as evidence of her foreign policy experience?

A year long investigation by the non-partisan group Veterans for America has concluded with a lengthy report.

The report offers a scathing critique of the Guard's alleged lack of assistance -- particularly with health care -- for soldiers returning from overseas deployments. It asserts the Guard was sent to fight without proper systems in place to handle its returning vets and urges deployments to cease until the situation is fixed.

"As a result of inadequate leadership from the Governor of Alaska, among others, the Alaska National Guard has an inadequate understanding of the full range of post-combat issues," the report says.

The Alaska National Guard disputes the findings and calls the report a political hatchet job. The 8 page summary with preliminary findings is here. The full report should be released sometime today.

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Hillary: Chances of Another Presidential Run "Close to Zero"

During an interview on Fox and Friends this morning. Hillary Clinton said the chances of her running again for President are "close to zero."

She said the chances of her becoming Senate Majority Leader or a Supreme Court Justice are "zero."

Hillary has made more than 50 appearances for Barack Obama. But, according to this report, that's not the reason her former supporters are now lined up behind him. The reason: Sarah Palin. [More...]

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The Polls - 10/14

Only new results (no WaPo (Obama by 10) for example). DKos/R2000 has Obama up 11, 52-41. Zogby has a tracker too and he has Obama up 6, 49-43. Gallup tracker (new LV model) has Obama up 10, 53-43. IBD/TIPP has Obama up 2, 45-43. Ras says Obama by 5, 50-45.

In terms of state polling, Q Poll issued a bunch of state polls. Obama has locked up WI, MI and MN (which should surprise no one) and he holds a significant lead in CO, 52-43.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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McCain Pastor: My God Is Bigger than Your God

I honestly have never seen anything this bizarre:

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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