Sen. Barack Obama has been on the "Don't get over-confident" theme all day. He told voters in New York and New Hampshire he remembers New Hampshire and the polls aren't always right.

Tonight, at what sounds like an incredible fundraising concert with Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel, Obama took the stage at the end: [More...]

As has been reported all day at blogs and news media sites, Joe the Plumber is not who he pretended to be. The Miami Herald has a good wrap-up.

Some of the early news:

Never served in the apprentice program or got a license, according to Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 50, in Toledo. Doesn't make anywhere near the $250,000 that would subject him to higher taxes under Obama's proposed tax plan.

Now, there's this: Tom Joseph, the business manager of the Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 50 union in Toledo, says:

Joe claimed on a social networking site to be a working union member and even used the pipefitters' insignia as a background. ''He's never been a member of the union,'' Joseph said.

More...

CNN's Money fact-checks McCain's claims about Obama's tax plan and small businesses. Shorter version: McCain's wrong again.

The bottom line: McCain's claim only works by using an overly broad definition of what counts as a "small business" - and even with that definition, fewer than 2% of business owners would be hit by Obama's proposed rate increase. For those who are affected, the increase would be levied only on a part of their earnings, not all of them.

Tomorrow the Washington Post will endorse Barack Obama. The editorial is already posted here.

....[I]t is without ambivalence that we endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president. The choice is made easy in part by Mr. McCain's disappointing campaign, above all his irresponsible selection of a running mate who is not ready to be president. It is made easy in larger part, though, because of our admiration for Mr. Obama and the impressive qualities he has shown during this long race. Yes, we have reservations and concerns, almost inevitably, given Mr. Obama's relatively brief experience in national politics. But we also have enormous hopes.

....we find no way to square his professed passion for America's national security with his choice of a running mate who, no matter what her other strengths, is not prepared to be commander in chief.[Emphasis supplied.]

It's not that flattering an editorial. It disagrees that McCain equals four more years of Bush and criticizes Obama's Iraq position. It makes me wonder, had McCain not picked Palin, would the Post still have endorsed Obama?

Check out PalinasPresident --it's a flash so don't forget to click on all the objects in the picture. It's updated daily until November 4.

Palin's latest: G-d blessed the U.S. with oil and gas. Forget Joe the Plumber, he's a nobody. Keep your eye on Sarah Palin.

Don't miss David Letterman tonight, John McCain makes an appearance, trying to make up for his canceled appearance a few weeks ago that led to Letterman doing lots of funny jokes about him and Palin. Tonight: [More...]

Bump: I'm bumping this from yesterday where it got buried under our debate posts.

A new report, the Power of the Latino Vote (pdf), predicts 9 million Latino, Hispanic and immigrant citizens will vote on November 4.

The road to the White House passes through key “battleground” states with large numbers of Latino and immigrant voters like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. These voters are also flexing their muscle in Senate and House races across the nation.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any uglier:

A San Bernardino County Republican group has distributed a newsletter picturing Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on a $10 bill adorned with a watermelon, ribs and a bucket of fried chicken.

A black member of the club said:

"This is what keeps African-Americans from joining the Republican Party," she said. "I'm really hurt. I cried for 45 minutes."

To its credit, the California Republican Party denounced the illustration.

Update: As noted in the comments, the picture is actually of a $10 food stamp.

Add Bon Jovi to the list of musicians who have asked the McCain campaign to stop using their music at campaign appearances.

"We are surprised to hear that our song, Who Says You Can't Go Home, was used by the McCain campaign at rallies yesterday and today," the statement said.

"We wrote this song as a thank you to those who have supported us over the past 25 years. The song has since become a banner for our home state of New Jersey and the de facto theme song for our partnerships around the country to build homes and rebuild communities.

"Although we were not asked, we do not approve of their use of Home."

McCain used the Rolling Stones song "Start Me Up" last week without the band's permission. The Stones' "It's All Over Now" would have been a more apt choice.

Booman Tribune has this video of a Sarah Palin rally that will make you want to throw up.

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Does it mean Obama isn't out of the woods yet? I don't think so. There are more of us than them. The radical right fringe exist but not in enough numbers to take over our Government -- if all of us get out and vote.

It's a good reminder though that we can't take anything for granted and everyone has to get out and vote -- early if possible, to avoid the chance something will go awry at your polling station.

This story caught my eye:

Social Security benefits for 50 million people will go up 5.8 percent next year, the largest increase in more than a quarter century.

Juxtaposed with this:

2008 is currently tracking as the 10th worst first half year performance for the Dow with a decline of -14.46% YTD as of Friday's close (7/27).

Since 7/27, the Dow has melted down. But John McCain supported privatizing Social Security:

It seems Joe the Plumber wants 4 more years of the last 8, with social security privatization. [More...]

In the wake of another Presidential debate, we'll follow the polling for the next three nights closely. I think the race is over as I have for some time. In any event, some updated results.

DKos/R2000 has Obama holding a steady 11 point lead, 52-41. Ras has Obama holding a 4 point lead, 50-46. Hotline has Obama up 8, 49-41. Gallup expanded has Obama up 8, 52-44. A slew of big media polls have Obama up big from 9 (LATimes), 10 (WaPo) to 14 (NYTimes).

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Last night, John McCain said:

[E]lections have consequences when presidents are nominated. This is a very important issue we're talking about. . . . I do not believe that someone who has supported Roe v. Wade that would be part of those qualifications [to be on the Supreme Court].

Barack Obama said:

[I]t is true that [choosing Supreme Court justices] is going to be, I think, one of the most consequential decisions of the next president. It is very likely that one of us will be making at least one and probably more than one appointments and Roe versus Wade probably hangs in the balance. Now I would not provide a litmus test. But I am somebody who believes that Roe versus Wade was rightly decided.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only