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Hillary's Victory Speech: The Home Stretch

Hillary is beaming, on stage with Bill and Chelsea.

"Thank You New York. Today you proved once again, there's no place like home."

..."New Yorkers, you've always had my back, and I've tried to have yours."

Hillary Clinton won big in New York -- 59.2% as of now to 40.8% for Bernie. She even won Brooklyn.

"To those who supported Sanders, I believe there is more that unites us than divides us"

She says the race is in the home stretch. "This campaign is the only one, Democrat or Republican, to win more than 10 million votes." [More...]

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New York Primary Thread

Early exit polls have trickled in and reading the tea leaves I think they're good for Clinton. Caveat - first wave notoriously unreliable.

I may add more here tonight - still 3 more hours of voting. In the meantime, I tweet - @armandodkos.

Hearing last wave of exits have it closer 8-10. I'm skeptical. But let's count the votes.

My source was right. Trump wins. Exits don;t show Clinton with big enough margin to call the race.

Hillary Wins!

Worst exit poll miss in history.

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Trump vs Cruz vs Kasich

Update: Trump won big, 60% of the vote so far, and 84 of 95 delegates. Kasich did pretty good for him.(25% of vote and 2 delegates.) Cruz bombed. Zero delegates. Here's a funny and short Washington Post video about Kasich eating his way through New York, he really looks like he's enjoying himself. Interesting exit poll number from Fox: 60% of NY Republicans are either concerned or scared about the prospect of a Ted Cruz presidency.

Original Post: All news seems to have auto-play video when it comes to Republicans. Here's a thread to talk about the Republican race for the nomination. Is Kasich picking up steam? I think it will either be Trump or Kasich. No one is going to nominate Ted Cruz. Republicans might as well nominate no one, since Cruz has zero chance of winning in November.

He looks more and more like an undertaker to me.

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New York Primary Day

New York Primary day is finally here. There are 291 delegates up for grabs. Hillary is expected to win, but the margin may be less than expected. Even so, the road ahead for Bernie gets rockier and rockier.

[T]he current state of the race means Sanders will have to win more than 56 percent of the delegates in New York, and every other state on the calendar, to overtake Clinton. Because of this, Sanders would need to do more than just outperform the polls to come out ahead: He needs to beat Clinton by several points to make a difference.

Run, Hillary, Run. If you're in New York, get out and vote.

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Clooney and Friends Raise Huge Amount for Hillary and Dems

Bernie Sanders is bent out of shape because George Cloony and other Hollywood stars and bigwigs raised millions for Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party this weekend. He really just wishes Clooney had chosen him.

Clooney agreed the amount of money raised is obscene, but he's not apologizing. [More...]

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Hillary and Bernie Debate in Brooklyn

We've been spared Democratic debates for a month. There's one beginning in a few minutes on CNN.
If anyone's watching (and I will watch some)here's a place for your thoughts on it.

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Republican Gala in NYC

Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich are speaking tonight at a Republican gala at the Grand Hyatt hotel on 42nd St. in New York City.

Will Trump remind everyone he built the hotel at age 27, and 20 years later sold his interest for $140 million? It was his first big real estate deal. In 1976, the hotel was called The Commodore, and really run-down.

Here's a thread to discuss the Republican event tonight.

Update: Trump did indeed begin with his Hyatt hotel deal and he went on and on about it for far too long.

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DA to Announce No Prosecution of Trump Campaign Manager

According to Politico, Palm Beach County Attorney David Aronberg will announce tomorrow there will be no prosecution of Donald Trump's campaign manager Corey Lewandowski for battery.

Aronberg would not comment, but in a POLITICO interview last week, he pointed out that Jupiter police had a low “probable cause” standard to cite Lewandowski for battery. But the responsibility for moving forward with a full-blown prosecution rested with Aronberg’s office, which had to consider whether a crime occurred and whether they believed a jury of Floridians would prosecute.

(I think the last word in that quote was meant to be "convict" not prosecute.) Lewandowski was cited by the Jupiter, FL police for allegedly grabbing the arm of ex-Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields who wanted to ask Trump a question after a news conference.

Miami attorney David Marcus told Politico while Lewandowski's conduct might technically fit the battery statute, it's not a wise use of the state's resources. [More...]

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Republicans: Ryan, Kasich and Cruz

Paul Ryan claims he won't accept the Republican nomination. Who believes him? NPR tries to make a case for John Kasich.

538 says Ted Cruz has the most endorsements among Republicans in Congress.

Andrew Romano, writing for Yahoo News, lays out Cruz' strategy for California and has some thoughts on the "GOP's Veep problem." During the 2008 election cycle, Andrew wrote for Newsweek. We sat next to each other at a a Romney house party in Iowa and I followed his reporting after that. He's a good reporter.[More...]

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Bernie Changes SuperDelegate Stance

Bernie Sanders has moved from trying to convince superdelegates to vote for the "will of the people" to asking superdelegates in states he lost to vote for him anyway. The AP asks if he's trying to have his cake and eat it too.

What’s behind this tactical shift? One possibility is that the Sanders camp realized they would need the votes of at least some superdelegates even in the states he didn’t carry. As the Washington Post points out, caucus states, where Sanders has done the best, tend to have fewer superdelegates to award, so Clinton would still lead Sanders by several hundred superdelegates, even if you gave Sanders all of them in the states he won.

538 says Hillary has a 99% chance of winning the New York primary. Nationally, the AP says, despite his last 7 wins, Hillary still leads both in pledged delegates and popular vote totals.

The Washington Post reports Bernie's latest cake-fest is a long-shot. [More...]

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Trump Theories Abound

Everyone has a different theory about what's ahead for Republicans and Donald Trump. The media, which pushed him to the top in the first place, has finally begun the backtrack. Is it too late? Is the apparent alternative (Ted Cruz) worse? Is John Kasich relevant?

In The 2016 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet, an article assessing the state of the race for the presidential nomination, with a section on each of the current and former contenders for all parties, the Atlantic writes about Trump:

Who is he?
America’s sweetheart—well, America’s high-school sweetheart, the one you get embarrassed thinking about decades later.

[More...]

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Trump Takes a Pass on Colorado as Unfavorability Rating Rises

There is no huge fight for Republican delegates in Colorado. Donald Trump isn't here. Colorado is off his radar. Ted Cruz can have the state's delegates.

"The process here doesn't lend itself to our kind of campaign," said Alan Cobb, a senior Trump adviser based in Kansas who is on the ground in Colorado Springs. "Our expectations are really low. If we get a delegate number higher than zero, it's going to be a success."

Kasich isn't coming to Colorado either. He has sent ex-Sen. John Sununu to pitch for him. Sununu claims Republicans will lose the U.S. senate and the state legislature to Dems if Trump is the nominee. [More...]

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